Prior Probabilities: an Information-theoretic Approach
نویسنده
چکیده
Abstract. General theoretical principles that enable the derivation of prior probabilities are of interest both in practical data analysis and, more broadly, in the foundations of probability theory. In this paper, it is shown that the general rule for the assignment of priors proposed by Jeffreys can be obtained from, and is logically equivalent to, an intuitively reasonable information-theoretical invariance principle Some of the implications for the priors proposed by Hartigan [1], Jaynes [2], and Skilling [3], are also discussed.
منابع مشابه
Statistical Decisions Using Likelihood Information Without Prior Probabilities
This paper presents a decision-theoretic approach to statistical inference that satisfies the Likelihood Principle (LP) without using prior information. Unlike the Bayesian approach, which also satisfies LP, we do not assume knowledge of the prior distribution of the unknown parameter. With respect to information that can be obtained from an experiment, our solution is more efficient than Wald’...
متن کاملExponential Models: Approximations for Probabilities
Welch & Peers (1963) used a root-information prior to obtain posterior probabilities for a scalar parameter exponential model and showed that these Bayes probabilities had the confidence property to second order asymptotically. An important undercurrent of this indicates that the constant information reparameterization provides location model structure, for which the confidence property ...
متن کاملA Game Theoretic Approach for Sustainable Power Systems Planning in Transition
Intensified industrialization in developing countries has recently resulted in huge electric power demand growth; however, electricity generation in these countries is still heavily reliant on inefficient and traditional non-renewable technologies. In this paper, we develop an integrated game-theoretic model for effective power systems planning thorough balancing between supply and demand for e...
متن کاملThe effect of prior probabilities on quantification and propagation of imprecise probabilities resulting from small datasets
This paper outlines a methodology for Bayesian multimodel uncertainty quantification (UQ) and propagation and presents an investigation into the effect of prior probabilities on the resulting uncertainties. The UQ methodology is adapted from the information-theoretic method previously presented by the authors (Zhang and Shields, 2018) to a fully Bayesian construction that enables greater flexib...
متن کاملCombination of real options and game-theoretic approach in investment analysis
Investments in technology create a large amount of capital investments by major companies. Assessing such investment projects is identified as critical to the efficient assignment of resources. Viewing investment projects as real options, this paper expands a method for assessing technology investment decisions in the linkage existence of uncertainty and competition. It combines the game-theore...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
دوره شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2005